Since Jeff Brohm arrived in West Lafayette, he's had the air of a winner about him. It's hard to explain what exactly it was that made me think he might succeed when he first arrived, but I think it came down to his simple track record of winning and winning big.
At Western Kentucky, Brohm was 30-10 overall and won two Conference USA championships back-to-back. Boasting an impressive resume, he was convinced by then-new Purdue AD Mike Bobinski and President Mitch Daniels to take on the challenge of his career and lead a program that was quite literally on life support.
Boilermaker football, and by extension, Purdue University, have never been the same.
That's not to say there haven't been tough times. After some quick offseason patching of holes led to a decent first season and a bowl victory in 2017 - and at that point getting to a bowl at all seemed like a miracle - Purdue would go 6-7 in 2018. It was helped by freshman receiver Rondale Moore electrifying the nation, but the campaign ended with a brutal blowout loss to Auburn in the Music City Bowl.
I think early success with getting to bowl games caused the fanbase to get ahead of itself and start to predict world-beating results a little too soon. The reality was the rebuild was only just beginning in 2018, and the Boilers would deal with incomplete rosters and little depth - just the reality of building a Big Ten program from the bottom up. Depth issues reared their ugly head in a bigger way in 2019, when a couple of injuries essentially derailed the season and Brohm turned to giving freshmen as much experience as he could in the second half of the campaign.
As we all know, the pandemic hit, and that led to a simply weird 2020 season. We're talking so weird that IU had a good football team. Everything was topsy turvy and didn't make sense, and I'm willing to give the coaches a total pass for it given the uncertainty that plagued everyone all offseason about whether or not games would even be played.
In 2021, Coach Brohm flexed his coaching muscle and started to win a little more. A struggling offense (13 ppg was rough for a while) came alive when Aidan O'Connell took over at quarterback in a home game against Illinois. AOC lit the world on fire with some incredible numbers and Purdue never looked back, finishing with nine total wins for the first time since 2003. That's almost 20 years ago!
I feel like Brohm now has the program in a position to really start competing for bigger things. He's built some depth in key areas Purdue simply didn't have even a few years ago, especially along the defensive line, where the program lost George Karlaftis but gained help, including blue chip freshman Nic Caraway and Penn State transfer Cole Brevard. The wide receiver room is insanely deep thanks to Iowa transfers Charlie Jones and Tyrone Tracy. O'Connell came back for a promising sixth-year senior campaign, and while the offensive line isn't exactly great at this point in the program build, dudes like Gus Hartwig could be NFL prospects and the Boilers have young linemen with bigger size who can make an impact.
Don't sleep on Jones and Tracy both being major contributors. I have a sneaky feeling about Charlie Jones being big time, especially given his history with O'Connell, which goes back to childhood apparently. Broc Thompson might have a nice year after going off against Tennessee in the 2021 Music City Bowl. (Yes, Paul Finebaum... the Vols lost). I expect Tracy and TJ Sheffield to both play slot receiver.
I've seen some fans predicting as many as 10 regular season wins. That would be an all-time great season in the history of the program. I doubt it, if I'm being honest... I think 9-3 is pretty doable, but 8 wins again wouldn't be surprising. With O'Connell back and a defense that has a chance to be salty, I think 7 wins or more should be the minimum expectation this year. That's already a major step up from where the program was when Brohm took over.
Now, the big question: Can Purdue compete to go as far as winning the Big Ten West?
That would have been a laughable concept a few years ago, but now, that's a serious discussion. With a favorable schedule, the Boilers avoided drawing Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State in the regular season. Our toughest draw from the East division is Penn State, and that's opening night on Sept. 1 in what promises to be a sold out and loud Ross-Ade Stadium. Our odds seem better now than they have been, without question.
Officially, I've been on the record telling friends I think Purdue will be 9-3, with losses to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois. Some might gawk at that predicted loss to the Illini, but historically a WTF loss has happened each season in the Brohm era, and I like what Bret Bielema is building in Champaign. That game will be sneaky.
I'm not picking a win over Wisconsin until someone proves it's possible. We've been straight up owned by the Badgers. Unfortunately, I think losses to the Gophers and Badgers doom Purdue in terms of winning the division, but 9 regular season wins will be considered an outright success.
A few things aren't debatable in my opinion, including:
A clear culture change within the program. Purdue football is fun again, and Jeff Brohm deserves praise for that.
Aidan O'Connell is LEGIT. He lit up multiple top five teams in 2021 and threw five touchdowns in a bowl game without his top two receivers.
Brohm should be paid accordingly for improved results. He was just extended through 2027 by the university. I expect his results to keep up, and when they do, Purdue needs to pay what it takes to keep the Louisville Cardinals away when that job inevitably opens again. Thanks to a massive new Big Ten TV contract, we can pay up.
Stay tuned for more news about Off The Rails, a podcast featuring myself and site co-admin Ryan Berry. We've been talking over details about the first episode and should have more soon. It will be before Purdue takes the field against PSU.
Can't wait to see everyone at Ross-Ade in a few weeks. Hammer down.
-Jackson
Comments